Comparing Votes to Voters in Pennsylvania

Those following the Biden election fraud conspiracy theories will be familiar with the claim made by a group of Republican Pennsylvania legislators that there were more votes than voters in the election. President Trump himself tweeted it, putting the number at 205,000.

The (exaggerated number) comes from comparing the Pennsylvania Statewide Uniform Registry of Electors (SURE). It would make sense on the surface that the number of people who voted as recorded in the state voter registration system should equal the number of votes cast. The problem is that the Vote totals are carefully counted and certified, and the SURE database is something that appears to be aggregated over time, and not up to date.

I purchased a copy of the SURE data released on December 28, 2020 and I found that it’s still being updated, based on the record change dates in the file for people who voted in the 2020 presidential election. Here is the recent record change summary:

Record change dates for Pennsylvania SURE data for persons recorded as voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

I looked at those voters in SURE that voted in the 2020 election and compared it to the current (January 1, 2021) unofficial election results from the Secretary of State’s website and found that at the county level, there were sometimes more votes than voters, and sometimes more voters than votes. In short, the two databases really don’t correspond well. My results are here.

Trump dumber than many of his followers

When looking at the 2020 election fraud conspiracy theories, some are dumber than others and some are more simply debunked than others. One of the dumbest and simplest to debug is the claim that there were more votes than voters in Pennsylvania.

The claim takes the number of absentee ballots requested in the Pennsylvania primary election and compares it to the number of absentee votes cast in the general election. Oops. If one takes the number of absentee ballots requested for the general election, then it is smaller (as it would have to be) to the number of absentee ballots cast.

This was of course debunked by the journalists who do this for a living:

These debunking articles are a month or more old today, as Trump continues to repeat them

And just in case it gets deleted, here’s a picture: