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Comparing Votes to Voters in Pennsylvania

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Those following the Biden election fraud conspiracy theories will be familiar with the claim made by a group of Republican Pennsylvania legislators that there were more votes than voters in the election. President Trump himself tweeted it, putting the number at 205,000.

The (exaggerated number) comes from comparing the Pennsylvania Statewide Uniform Registry of Electors (SURE). It would make sense on the surface that the number of people who voted as recorded in the state voter registration system should equal the number of votes cast. The problem is that the Vote totals are carefully counted and certified, and the SURE database is something that appears to be aggregated over time, and not up to date.

I purchased a copy of the SURE data released on December 28, 2020 and I found that it’s still being updated, based on the record change dates in the file for people who voted in the 2020 presidential election. Here is the recent record change summary:

Record change dates for Pennsylvania SURE data for persons recorded as voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

I looked at those voters in SURE that voted in the 2020 election and compared it to the current (January 1, 2021) unofficial election results from the Secretary of State’s website and found that at the county level, there were sometimes more votes than voters, and sometimes more voters than votes. In short, the two databases really don’t correspond well. My results are here.

Two Presidents

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This article is reprinted from my post at Quora.com.

The reader can take comfort from the fact that I am usually wrong predicting Donald Trump.

Let’s start with an iconic photo of Lyndon Johnson taking the oath of office as president upon the death of John F. Kennedy.

Lyndon Johnson takes the oath of office

The woman administering the oath of office was federal district judge Sarah Hughes. There’s nothing in U. S. law requiring the president’s oath of office be administered by the chief justice of the Supreme Court or even a federal judge; it can be administered by anyone who is authorized under law to accept an oath.

History is not my strong suit, but I recall that in the 14th century, the Roman Catholic Church had two popes. (There was a plague too.) There were two claimants to the throne of St. Peter, and for political reasons some supported one, and some supported the other.

Could not Donald Trump, again, declare that he won the election, and find some justice of the peace to swear him in? Could some red state legislature then vote, saying that Pope Donald was the real president, and swear allegiance to him? Could Trump surround himself with supporters, and he appoint them to “cabinet positions,” and start calling world leaders declaring Biden not the real president? Would we have “divided government” to a degree not seen since the Civil War?

Trump doing that seems insane, but so does what Donald Trump is doing now with his election conspiracy theories.

Whether Trump will try to get himself sworn in president in January is unknown, but be prepared for 4 years of “Biden is not really president” on the Internet, as we had 8 years of “Obama is not really president” from the same crowd.